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中國的崛起對世界是機會還是威脅，一直是國際政治的熱門話題。2003年中國提出了所謂的「中國和平崛起」的口號，成功地引起國際上對和平中國的想像與討論。中國想要告訴世界，崛起中的中國對世界是機會而非威脅。

 

但是，這與我們從歷史中所學到的教訓不相同。人類歷史證明和平的口號本身不會帶來和平。「和平崛起」如果不是一個口號，充其量也只是一個主觀的、無法自我實現的陳述。當今世界和平必須以民主為基礎才能實現，唯有「民主崛起」才是和平的最佳保證。中國也唯有「民主崛起」才能成為「負責任的利害關係人」。

 

國際政治史告訴我們，一個新興的強權，除非是民主國家，通常會不惜引起衝突與戰爭，尋求改變現有的遊戲規則。20世紀初，美、德、日均是當時新興強權，後來德、日出現納粹與軍國主義，將全世界捲入戰禍。而美國卻扮演穩定世界和平的角色，其關鍵就在於「民主」。

 

惟有民主崛起，中國才可能成為負責任的利害關係人，沒有民主，「和平崛起」將只是一個美麗的口號，昔日的德、日也大談和平，但是如今納粹與軍國主義的主要特徵，諸如 : 狂熱的民族主義與國家社會主義、對強權政治的鼓吹、對人權的否定、對暴力的歌頌、對強人的崇拜等均出現於現在的中國。我認為非民主的、集權、一黨專政的中國的崛起，很可能帶來衝突與戰爭危機。

 

 

台灣從國民黨威權體制轉變成民主國家，一路走來雖然非常艱難，但我們感到無比的驕傲。百年來台灣人民對民主自由的嚮往，累積一股無可抵擋的力量，一步一步地打破國民黨的威權體制，開放黨禁與報禁，選出真正代表台灣人民的新國會，並在1996年完成了首度總統直接民選。

 

代表民進黨的陳水扁總統在2000年勝選，和平地完成了首度的政黨輪替。新政府不但維護社會安定與經濟繁榮，也完成了軍隊國家化，公民的自由與人權都得到進一步的保障。由於台灣人民的支持，民進黨在2004年再次勝選，繼續為台灣民主的鞏固與深化努力。

 

當然，如大家所知的，第三波民主化過程經常伴隨著舊統治勢力的反撲而造成挫敗。台灣的國民黨雖然下台，但是國民黨等舊勢力集團仍然在國會掌握過半的席次，因此，雖然民進黨贏得總統大選，但民進黨政府並未完全執政，在推動諸多民主改革的工作時，仍遭受強大的阻力。

 

當前台灣執政黨與在野黨在國家政策上最大的岐異就是國家主權與對中政策。民進黨認為台灣是個主權獨立的國家，國民黨則主張台灣是中國的一部份；民進黨強調民主，國民黨則以中國民族主義為先；民進黨對台灣未來的思考是放在如何與西方民主國家站在同一邊，國民黨則是完全依附在中國對台灣的期望上；民進黨將中國政策置於亞太戰略中來考量，國民黨把台灣的對外關係置於其對中國政策的考量之下。也因此，民進黨支持美日同盟緊密的合作，國民黨則傾向保持與美、中的等距關係。

 

國民黨的馬英九主席今年初提出了「五不五要」的主張。這是一種不談國家主權，更不談民主價值，極力討好中國以維持兩岸穩定的主張。我認為這叫作「茍且偷安」！如同我前面所論述的，我們如果不積極促進中國民主化，台灣海峽的穩定將不可能，而災難卻是可預期的！

 

如果2008年是由國民黨勝選的話，我大膽預測，國民黨的領導人在中國民族主義的陰魂下，會採取對美、中等距的路線，並且弱化台日關係。這不僅是在政治上向中國傾斜，更重要的是，台灣的民主會像香港一樣開始倒退，民主陣營給世人的信心也將遭到質疑。

 

 

台灣民主化的過程乃是一個新興國家由威權走向民主社會的重要典範，這不但這是民主陣營的驕傲，也是全人類的共同資產。台灣是華語地區唯一的民主國家，是戰後由經濟開放走向政治民主成功的典範，也是世界公認最有可能促成中國民主化的堡壘。

 

國際社會一直期待透過與中國的交往，來促使中國成為一個成熟的市場經濟與民主社會。但是現在經濟開放的中國卻展現了反撲民主的惡行。香港的言論自由幾乎喪失殆盡，2007年直選特首的承諾也跳票，香港的民主倒退已不容否認。中國還變本加厲，大肆干預台灣內部的政治事務，試圖摧毀台灣民主體制的正常運作。有太多例子可以說明這樣的情形。

 

例如 :

(1)中資滲入多數台灣媒體，影響大眾輿論。

(2)以商業利益威脅台商改變政治主張與信仰，不但不敢維護人權與自由，還被迫公開表態支持中國的對台政策。

(3)威脅台灣學者在言論上自我設限，以免被限制進入中國研究與交流。

(4)孤立執政的民進黨，籠絡主張中、台合併的在野黨，致力分化台灣。

(5)逼迫台灣許多反對黨的政治人物，包括國民黨前主席連戰先生及親民黨宋楚瑜主席，在北京不敢維護台灣主權，提及中華民國國號與普世價值的民主自由。

(6)中國甚至要求Yahoo、Google等美國公司對台灣網路進行審查，企圖壓迫台灣人民言論自由的空間。

 

台灣的經驗顯示，一個逐漸壯大、非民主、威權體制的中國，會利用其經濟的力量去傷害他國民主制度的正常運作；他能傷害台灣，當然也能傷害其他國家。我認為現在的中國正以漸進的方式，侵蝕著美國在世界各地所建立的「民主同盟」的基礎。

 

當前東亞地區呈現出「海權民主國家」 (maritime democracies)與「陸權非民主國家」(continental non-democracies)兩大集團對立的態勢，而台灣正處於此一地緣戰略線的最前緣。中國對台灣的打壓，意味著對民主陣營的反撲。一個向中國傾斜的台灣，不僅將對亞太區域的權力平衡帶來重大的挑戰，也勢必影響到民主陣營的保障與發展。

 

面對中國八百顆飛彈針對台灣並大幅度擴充軍備，台灣海峽兩岸的武力均衡漸向中國傾斜，台灣必須加強自我防衛，提高國防預算，積極購買防衛性武器，展現捍衛民主及主權的決心。

 

但是，基於對民主價值的堅持及生存的務實考量，我們無論如何都會盡全力來促使中國民主化。因為，只有民主的中國才能成為「負責任的利害關係人」，才能確保亞太與世界的和平，也才能永久確保民主的台灣。

 

 

偉大的德國哲學家康德在『永久和平論』中主張，惟有普遍的民主與共和體制，才有永久和平。我堅信，惟有民主自由制度在世界推廣擴大，國際社會才能擁有真正的和平與繁榮。

 

我要再次重申，台灣的民主典範得來不易，而且正遭受嚴重的威脅！台灣是促進中國民主化最重要的堡壘。鞏固台灣民主，將是擴大亞洲民主社群的關鍵。國際社會應該將台灣視為民主擴大（enlargement）的資產，對於台灣面臨中國的威脅與危機，國際社會應該給台灣最堅強的支持。

 

事實上，今天站在歷史十字路口的不是中國，而是自由民主陣營的所有國家。因為問題不在於中國政府要不要選擇民主的道路，而是以美國為首的所有民主社會成員是否要引導中國13億人民爭取自由與人權，選擇自由民主的道路，讓世界邁向和平。

 

身為民主陣營的一份子，我相信台灣必定能夠為民主擴大做出貢獻，有朝一日能夠讓13億中國人也享有自由民主，就像國際民主社會曾為台灣付出的努力一樣！今天我提出中國「民主崛起」的看法，就是希望提醒國際民主社會的友人，促進「民主」才應該是世界各國對中政策的重點！沒有民主中國就沒有民主台灣的確保。惟有民主的崛起才是真正的和平崛起。

 

讓我們相信民主的力量！也讓我們一起為世界的和平而努力！

 

 

[English]

 

 

Yu Shyi-kun, Chairman

Democratic Progressive Party of Taiwan

 

 

Whether China’s peaceful rise will be an opportunity or a threat has been a topic of heated debate in international politics. In 2003, China raised the “peaceful rise” concept, which successfully incited discussions and visions of a peaceful China. China wanted to tell the world that its rise is not a threat, but a great opportunity.

 

Nevertheless, this concept contradicts lessons from history. History teaches us that chanting peace will not actually bring peace itself. A “peaceful rise” can only be a slogan or a viewpoint, but cannot bring the actual realization of peace. In today’s world, in order to have actual peace, democracy must stand as the foundation. Therefore, a democratic rise is the biggest assurance of peace. China must have a rise of democracy in order to become a responsible stakeholder.

 

Past international experiences show us that a burgeoning power, unless it is a democratic country, must inevitably change the rules of the actual game. During the early part of the 20th century, the United States, Germany and Japan were considered rising powers at that time.  Subsequently, we saw that in Germany and Japan, ideas of Nazism and militarism emerged, yet the United States played a model role in stabilizing the world, mainly because of democracy.

 

The only way China will ever become a responsible stakeholder in the world is by rising democratically. Otherwise, “peaceful rise” is only a pretty slogan. In their day, the ideas of Nazism and militarism involved traits such as strong feelings of nationalism, fanatical desire for establishing national socialism, agitation of the masses for power politics, denying of individualism, extreme fervor and celebration, and infatuated worship of figureheads. All these traits resemble those seen in today’s China. A China that rises without democracy, where its people live under one-party totalitarian control, is very likely to bring a threat of war and conflict.

 

 

 

Taiwan has moved out of the shadow of the past authoritarian rule of the KMT to become today a democratic country. Although this was a difficult journey, the Taiwanese people are immeasurably proud of this accomplishment. For a hundred years now, the Taiwanese people have yearned for democracy and freedom. Step by step they were finally able to rid themselves of the KMT’s authoritarian regime. Restrictions on political parties and the media were loosened, and the full election of all members of the legislature converted it into a new, authentic body, which truly represents the people of Taiwan. In 1996, we were able to hold Taiwan’s first direct presidential election.

 

Representing the Democratic Progressive Party, Chen Shui-bian was victoriously elected president in the year 2000. With this triumph, we achieved a peaceful transition of government power, and besides maintaining social stability and economic prosperity, we moved a step forward in establishing a neutral military that understands its loyalty is to the country, not one political party. We also maintained social and economic sustainable development, and we ensured a deepened protection for civic, democratic and human rights. In 2004, with the people’s affirmation, the DPP was re-elected to govern for a second term and continued to work assiduously to strengthen and deepen Taiwan’s democracy.

 

As you know, it is quite natural that in the third wave of democratization, there are strong reactions from those who used to hold power. In Taiwan’s case there is a unique circumstance, namely that even though the KMT stepped down from the presidency, the former KMT influence still dominates the legislature. Even with a presidential victory, the DPP government is unable to govern effectively and, when the DPP tried to push several reform packages, the DPP administration faced, and continues to face, considerable obstruction.

 

Presently, the biggest difference between the ruling party and the opposition parties when it comes to national policy concerns the sovereignty issue and China. The DPP believes that Taiwan is a sovereign and independent country and the KMT believes that Taiwan is a part of China. The DPP prioritizes democracy while the KMT emphasizes Chinese nationalism. When it comes to Taiwan’s future, the DPP bases it on Western expectations, standing on the side of Western democratic countries. Meanwhile, the KMT completely bases Taiwan’s future on China’s expectations. The DPP positions its China policy within the larger context of Asia-Pacific strategy. The KMT positions its foreign policy for Taiwan within the context of its own China policy. This is the main reason why the DPP supports the strengthening of US-Japan alliance, while the KMT chooses to keep the U.S. and China equidistant.

 

Earlier this year, KMT Chairman Ma Ying-jeou came up with “Five No’s and Five Do’s”. In brief, his standpoint makes no mention of national sovereignty, much less democratic values, and tries its best to please China for supposedly preserving cross strait stability. I personally consider his standpoint as a “temporary band-aid for trouble” because if we do not actively advance China’s democratization, cross strait stability is unlikely to happen and conflict can be anticipated.

 

If the KMT were to win in 2008, I forecast confidently that the KMT leader will most likely adopt a policy of equilibrium between the U.S. and China, thus weakening Taiwan-Japan relations. Not only will there be a tilt towards China, but democracy in Taiwan will experience the same as in Hong Kong where the democratic forces have suffered.

 

 

I believe that, as a burgeoning country that moved from authoritarianism to democracy, Taiwan is a significant model of democratic achievement. This is not only a source of great pride, but it is also our biggest asset. Taiwan is the first democracy within a Chinese society context, and the one most likely to influence China’s democratic development.

 

International democracies are associating with China, but they have also urged economic maturity with democratic implementation. China’s opening economically did not bring about the opening of democracy. We can see that in Hong Kong, freedom of expression is fundamentally fading. Its promise to let the people of Hong Kong choose their leader in 2007 is unlikely, and undeniably, Hong Kong’s democracy has stepped back. Taiwan’s experience shows that a gradually growing non-democratic power like China, with very different fundamental values, will try to twist the functional normalcy of the democratic system.

 

There are many examples that illustrate these circumstances. China has invested in Taiwan’s media, thus affecting the media’s perspective. Compelled by pressure, Taiwanese businessmen are forced to change political stands, and Taiwanese scholars have refrained from commenting in opinion pieces to avoid been banned from research pursuits in China. They have isolated the DPP government and engaged with the opposition parties in order to divide Taiwan internally. Opposition party leaders such as former KMT Chairman Lian Chan and PFP Chairman James Soong didn’t dare talk about Taiwan’s sovereignty, use the name of their own country, or mention democracy and freedom while they visited Beijing. China has demanded that American companies like Yahoo and Google track internal Internet use in Taiwan, attempting to crackdown on freedom of expression in Taiwan.

 

Taiwan’s experience shows that, as a superpower without democracy with an authoritarian government structure, China will attempt to use its economic power to damage the normal functioning of another democratic country. If China has been able to influence Taiwan, it is also capable of exerting influence into other countries.

 

I believe that this kind of Chinese influence can be countermanded by a US established “Democratic Alliance.”

 

Taiwan stands at the front line of conflict between maritime democracies and continental non-democracies. China’s suppression of Taiwan affects all democratic forces. If Taiwan takes a pro-China approach, not only does the power-balance in the region face a great challenge but also the security and development of all democratic forces are affected.

 

Faced with China’s 800 missiles pointed at us, and the growing imbalance of military forces across the Strait in China’s favor, Taiwan must strengthen its defenses, raise its defense budget, prepare better self-defense weapons, and fortify our determination to preserve our democracy and sovereignty. However, with our democratic values firmly in place, we must strive by whatever means possible to press forward China’s democratization because only if China democratizes will it become a responsible stakeholder, will there be peace in Asia and the world, will democratic Taiwan be secure.

 

 

To cite the great German philosopher, Immanuel Kant, “Perpetual Peace” is achieved through democracy and a republican constitution. I have absolute faith that through the expansion of freedom and democracy, the world may really embrace peace and flourish.   I would like to say again, democracy in Taiwan was not easily achieved and it is subjected to great threats! Taiwan is at the forefront of bringing democratic change into China. Consolidating democracy in Taiwan is the key to expanding democracy in Asia. Confident that Taiwan is an asset in the enlargement of democracy, the international community should give its strongest support to Taiwan, especially when as it faces China’s threats and the crisis this is causing.

 

Today, standing at the crossroads of war and history is not China, but the rest of the free and democratic countries. The problem is not whether China itself will choose the road of democracy, but whether other democratic members of society, with the US in the lead, will take the responsibility for guiding the 1.3 billion Chinese people as they strive for freedom and human rights, choosing the road of freedom and democracy and thus moving the world toward peace.

 

As part of the democratic world, I believe that Taiwan can contribute to democratic enlargement. I hope that one day the 1.3 billion people in China are able to enjoy democratic rights, just as many exerted their efforts for Taiwan many years ago.

 

Today, I raise the concept, “China’s Democratic Rise” in the hopes of letting our democratic friends around the world know that advancing democracy should be the key point in the China policy of every country. Without a democratic China, democratic Taiwan will not be secure. Only if democracy rises will there truly be a peaceful rising.

 

Let us all have faith in the power of democracy! Together, let’s work for global peace!